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Staff analysis, game picks for Clemson football’s first-round matchup in CFP at Texas

Can the Tigers pull off the upset?

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Can Cade Klubnik return to his hometown and be a hero?

As I've documented since Clemson and Texas were matched up in the first round of the College Football Playoff, it seems unlikely that the Tigers are going to be able to generate success on the ground with an unhealthy Phil Mafah and Jay Haynes on the sideline with a torn ACL.

If the Longhorns weren't so steady on the back end, I would tell you that Clemson has a great chance against a team, and program, that has been underwhelming on the big stage since Colt McCoy went out in the first quarter of the BCS title game against Alabama in Pasadena.

But that secondary is so good, and they're even better at containing big plays, something that Klubnik and the Tigers' offense has been so reliant on this season. Without a reliable, consistent rushing attack, and likely problems hitting many chunk plays, Klubnik will have to play the best game of his career. And he'll need to do it while also playing somewhat conservatively.

Clemson hasn't been very good at getting the 4-5 yards each play that the Longhorns' defense wants you to take. Because of that, Dabo Swinney's team has struggled to put together the closing drives against both South Carolina and SMU. There's been too much dependence on the big play for this offensive unit recently. With a healthy Phil Mafah, it wasn't as much of a problem. That's why you saw the gaudy numbers you did — doesn't matter who the opponents were, Klubnik and Garrett Riley were on a record pace until the run game seemingly vanished.

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CLEMSON -- There was a time when Clemson won big games because it had Deshaun Watson and the other team didn't.

The Tigers had a good quarterback Saturday at Death Valley. A really good one.

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But this game came down to South Carolina having LaNorris Sellers and the Tigers not.

Sellers put his team on his back in a spectacular showing, including the go-ahead 20-yard touchdown run on third-and-18 with a little over a minute left.

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Cade Klubnik's experience meant a lot in this rare Top 15 rivalry matchup between the Tigers and Gamecocks.

Just not enough.

Klubnik guided the offense down the field to breathe life back into the stadium after Sellers sucked the life out of it.

They were 18 yards away from winning it with 12 seconds left.

But a chance to send the game into overtime with a field goal disappeared when Klubnik threw behind Phil Mafah.

Demetrius Knight dived to cradle the ball, and ballgame.

South Carolina 17, Clemson 14.

Crushing. Just crushing.

Maybe this Tigers team still ends up in the playoff.

Immediately after the game it was too early to tell.

But immediately after the game there was nothing on anyone's mind but an excruciating defeat at the hands of South Carolina.

Many Clemson fans still haven't gotten over the 31-30 defeat here two years ago that snapped the Tigers' 40-game home winning streak.

It could take as long to get over this one. Maybe longer.

Because for so long Saturday it was right there in the Tigers' grasp.

Sellers threw for just 164 yards with a fourth-quarter interception in the red zone.

But he made up for that, and an early lost fumble, with 166 rushing yards on 16 carries.

Shane Beamer said afterward that Sellers is the best player in college football, and the redshirt freshman made quite a case in extending the Gamecocks' win streak to six games.

Clemson just couldn't get him on the ground.

He averaged 10.4 yards a carry and had gains of 38, 27, 27, 25, and 20 yards.

The Tigers' offense was so close to landing the dagger in the third quarter after taking the opening kickoff and marching 75 yards on 11 plays to take a 14-7 lead.

Klubnik even sent a message that the Tigers were taking over physically on his 18-yard touchdown run, lowering his shoulder and plowing through Nick Emmanwori for the score.

When Avieon Terrell stripped the ball away from Rocket Sanders in Clemson territory on the Gamecocks' next possession to give the Tigers the ball, it felt like a pivotal juncture.

Clemson resumed moving it from there, all the way to the Gamecocks' 32.

Thirty-two yards from a two-touchdown lead, and well within range of a field-goal to take a two score advantage.

And all options on the table with a first down.

Then it all went up in smoke after Garrett Riley called in some trickery.

Klubnik stumbled after taking the snap from center.

He was to flip it to Mafah, who then was to flip it to Bryant Wesco coming back around in orbit motion.

Cole Turner was running free toward the end zone. But the play never got off the ground.

Klubnik's stumble sent his pitch wide of Mafah, who seemed to corral the ball as he was falling to the ground.

The officiating crew ruled Mafah was down.

And Clemson snapped the ball on second down, a Klubnik pass to TJ Moore already in the air as whistles sounded blowing the play dead for a review of the previous play.

The call was overturned. The review booth ruled Mafah never had possession of the ball.

Turnover.

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From there, Clemson's next three drives ended in punts with just 32 yards gained.

The Tigers had their opportunities, including a missed third-down throw from Klubnik to Wesco.

And, of course, the chance to win the game or send it to overtime there at the end.

Clemson got neither.

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If you want to say it was because the Tigers didn't have Sellers and the Gamecocks did, you'd get no argument here.

Klubnik was often super.

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But Sellers was Superman.

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